2025 Missouri Football Opponent Previews: Arkansas Razorbacks

Welcome back to Rock M Nation’s annual opponent preview series of the upcoming season. Each week we will break down one opponent from the schedule in chronological order. Given that rosters are ever fluid – and this is done by a hobbyist rather than a pro – there could be some errors in history and current roster makeup. All mistakes are done on purpose and with ill intent because I don’t like you or your team.

Catch up on previous 2025 opponent previews!

Central Arkansas

kansas

Louisiana

South Carolina

Massachusetts

Alabama

Auburn

Vanderbilt

Texas A&M

Mississippi State

Oklahoma

I don’t even know what to think about ol’ Sammy Pittman at the University of Arkansas anymore:

Last year I was writing off one of the more likeable coaches in the SEC because I didn’t see a way that he could win five games, stay above a .500 record (not counting his record in 2020), and therefore not trip the lever in his contract that cuts his buyout in half for not having a winning record.

And then Pittman and friends ripped off seven wins seemingly out of nowhere:

The dirty little secret is that Arkansas was actually pretty good last year, ranking 24th in the end-of-year SP+ rankings. They weren’t blowing anyone away and were taken to the wire by terrible UAB and Auburn squads but, still, 7-6 in the SEC is 7-6 in the SEC, and that’s with a 1-3 record in one-score games to boot.

In fact, other than the absurd road loss to Oklahoma State, Arkansas did exactly what most people expect from a college football team: beat the teams ranked worse than you, lose to the teams ranked better than you, and pull off a memorable upset.

And, here’s what they did:

• Record against teams ranked worse than them in SP+: 5-1 (the “1” being Okie State)
• Record against teams ranked better than them in SP+: 1-5 (the “1” being the upset over Tennessee)

So…yeah…they basically did what was expected of them. Which I’ll give total credit to the coaching job Pittman and friends did to steer out of the skid with a bunch of unproven talent.

Now they have to do it again. With more unproven talent.

Coaching Staff

Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images

Sam Pittman – 5th Year – 30-31 (14-28)

As a reminder, from last year’s preview:

When Pittman was hired, he had never been a head coach at a D-I school despite always wanting the opportunity to do so. Given the circumstance of him willing to take anything, his contract features a trigger in it where, if Pittman’s career win-loss record dips below .500 (not counting the 2020 season), then his buyout gets cut in half.

Right now, Pittman’s buyout is $16 million and his win-loss record – excluding the 2020 season – is 20-18.

Now, given Karter “The Chicken Man” Knox’s money slingin’ tendencies – evidenced by poaching John Calipari – I think Arkansas would be happy to eat the $16 million to get rid of Pittman if they really wanted to get rid of him. But if it also happens to be a situation where the buyout is half of that? In a modern world where buyouts are rarely that cheap? Yeah, that’ll be automatic.

Pittman’s current not-counting-2020 record is 27-24. Which means in 2025 he needs to go at least 5-7 to avoid a halving of his buyout (and likely firing).

He’s done a great job at keeping his head above water just enough to keep the natives mostly in line but I’m not sure how many times the money and decision makers will be happy with “just enough” and entire roster rebuilds year after year.

Assistant Staff

I’ll admit it: I’m shocked Bobby Petrino is still here. I didn’t think he was going to be head coach of Arkansas in 2025, but I also didn’t think he’d stick around for a second year. It’s not really his thing to have jobs for longer than a year. It’s just always a ticking clock with Petrino but I do feel better that this will be his last year as the OC of Arkansas.

Other than that outlier, the only change was the acquisition of Nick Perry from the Seattle Seahawks to coach the secondary. Everyone else has been here for at least a year. That’s a nice bit of continuity for a team that is severely lacking that quality.

Roster Movement

Of all the teams I’ve previewed so far, Mississippi State had the most roster movement. By far. As in 34 portal losses and 37 portal additions. The Bulldogs are essentially a shadow of the team they were last year. No one — not UMass, not Auburn, not Oklahoma — not a single team on my preview list comes close to the seemingly heavy desperation that the Bulldogs operated in the transfer windows.

Ah. I’m sorry. A bit of mid-story correction here. It seems that….ah…yeah Arkansas comes very close to those Mississippi State-ian levels of roster churn:

THIRTY-FIVE PLAYERS TRANSFERRED AWAY FROM A P4 TEAM THAT WON SEVEN GAMES. GOOD LORD ARKANSAS, WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU?

Three quarterbacks, two running backs, six wide receivers, four tight ends, six offensive lineman, six linebackers, four defensive backs. All with some hefty stars next to their name coming out of high school.

Wait…AND THE PUNTER?

AND EVEN THE LONG SNAPPER LEFT?????? HOW????????

And these aren’t “oh they sucked and are at a G5 school now” transfers. Look at that list! Notre Dame, Ole Miss (twice!), SMU, Michigan (also twice!), Texas, UCLA (again…two transfers there!)…these are legitimate teams, a good chunk of whom were in the Playoff last year. That feels…bad? Yeah. Bad. I’m going with bad.

Now, there’s plenty of Purdue transfers (thanks to Barry Odom taking the gig there and having recruited some of these kids to Fayetteville) as well as a ULM and a Harding transfer. But still. Lots of losses to quality programs is the story here.

And, of course, the other side of the transfer coin is 31 transfers in to Arkansas who were playing ball somewhere else last year. You’re familiar with Arkansas native Courtney Crutchfield who left our Tigers after a year in the black and gold; we all know how much Arkansas treasures guys who play for Missouri, that’s old news at this point. But the main story is how much they needed to take in to replace what they lost. And while they have an excellent quarterback returning, he’s going to be throwing to – and being blocked by – a ton of dudes who could not pick him out of a lineup from a can of paint six months ago. Among that number are NINE new pass catchers! Five oh whom were playing in the G5 of FCS ball last year.

And they’re all going to just mash this together and somehow…be better than 24th in SP+ with a 7-6 record? Ok, I guess?

The 33rd-best recruiting class in the nation/15th-best in the SEC already lost one of its commits when Madden Iamaleava – brother of failed Tennessee negotiator Nico Iamaleava – followed his kin to UCLA.

Other than that they have two standout defensive pieces coming in from the high school ranks amid a flurry of mid-to-high three stars but this recruiting class, in particular, is going to be a test on the standards of the Razorbacks’ talent scouts. You have a crater of a roster that you’re throwing numbers at: how many of these freshmen can contribute day one? And how many need to? If any of the youngsters can step up and take pressure off of a transfer, that should be considered a massive win.

Offense

I’m not even sure if I should go through my usual analysis-spiel at this point. Why? Because Arkansas lost two of its top three running backs, every player who was targeted more than 19 times last year, and two starters on the line while also shifting their two starting tackles from last year into guard spots (if spring practice is an accurate indicator, anyway). So you have your quarterback and some backups plus a flood of transfers. And that means continuity?

This is where I hearken back to my comment about the assistant staff: it’s all the same. And with the same quarterback maybe the tendencies can carry over from one year to the next? Maybe?

In any case, last year’s Arkansas offense liked to pass way more than run even though they were a much better running team than passing team. Perhaps some of that was by the surprise of it, or maybe it was because quarterback Taylen Green was scrambling so much. In any case, they moved at a decently quick clip, allowed a ton of havoc, and mostly tossed the ball to a bevy of slot receivers while not trusting their outside receivers enough to get open consistently. They were elite in standard downs execution (6th) and passing downs as well (11th) but were mediocre in finishing drives with points and had a nasty turnover problem.

But that was last year. Let’s check out what’s left.

Quarterback

Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images

OC Bobby Petrino asked Green to throw it a lot which is not how I would have gone about it. Green had a terrible completion percentage (barely 60%), took too many sacks, and threw 9 interceptions to just 15 touchdowns. His 6.8 ANY/A is a full 1.2 yards worse than Brady Cook from last year and I read all about how the collective Missouri fan base felt about Cook throwing the ball last year.

He was a dynamic runner, however, as he got close to 850 sack-adjusted yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground with a 6.8 yards per carry average. He is the guy this year – mainly because he’s the only guy left – so I understand not wanting to run him too much, but that’s also the best proven weapon at this point.

Running Back

Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Green is the returning leading rusher, followed by the unimpressive backups Braylen Russell and Rodney Hill. Mike Washington, Jr. from New Mexico State is a fun piece to add as he was one of the two-headed rushing attack monsters the Aggies deployed…to minimal effect. Washington benefited from decent yards-before-contact but was near the bottom in generating yards after contact, and was more content to attempt to bowl over defenders rather than make them miss (neither of which worked, mind you).

Receivers

Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

To their credit, Arkansas made some smart decisions in calling up three lower-level receivers in Kam Shanks (UAB), Raylen Sharpe (Fresno State), and former-South-Carolina-blue-chipper-turned-G5-menace O’Mega Blake. Shanks and Sharpe would have had the best catch rates on last year’s Arkansas team, while Blake adds a deep threat that was not consistently present for Arkansas last year. Tight end Rohan Jones from Montana State is a also a fun piece to add, especially with 9 touchdowns over 30 catches. Outside of that, though, is just depth pieces that need to make a jump. And counting on every single one of these portal additions to hit immediately and produce is not a reasonable expectation.

Offensive Line

Photo by WJ/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

As mentioned previously, last year’s starting tackles – E’Marion Harris and Fernando Carmona – were getting work on the interior as Georgia Tech transfer Corey Robinson II and Maryland transfer Marcus Dumervil were seeing snaps at the tackle slots, with former UCF center Caden Kitler getting snaps at his usual position. All three were better run blockers than pass blockers with Dumervil being a noticeable liability in pass blocking with a 6% pressure rate allowed and two sacks given up.

Defense

As is the story with the offense, the Arkansas defense gets a hard reset as well, a year after fielding their best defense since 2021.

Of the 15 players who finished with over 400 snaps played last year – a cut off that tends to indicate starting-or-heavily-used status – only five played for Arkansas last year, with the rest being transfers. Even then, only 7 backups return from last year’s Hogs defense so there is an implied regression here as we can safely assume not every transfer is going to start and be a positive impact immediately.

Even then, last year’s defense was far from elite. Offenses could usually run on them, absolutely pass all over them, and the Hogs struggled with generating havoc, featuring three bottom 100 overall havoc numbers, and sub-90s levels of havoc production from the front seven. The thing they excelled at, however, was red zone defense and holding opponents to field goals.

And, truly, if you have to pick only one thing to be good at in defense…yeah, that’s a pretty good one.

DC Travis Williams just needs to make sure that he can replicate that sort of success with a brand new cast of characters. Or, you know, improve by ten spots in defensive SP+. That would help, too.

So what does it all mean?

This is my twelfth and final preseason opponent preview for the 2025 season and I have to say…this shit is hard.

Every year I do these and challenge myself to not fall into writing the same things or having the same takeaways year after year or even team after team. But – even in the pre-portal era! – anticipating how a college team would change from year to year was nigh impossible. With an overactive transfer portal it becomes even tougher.

So many times, I’ve looked at these teams on paper and thought, “Well, yeah, if these transfers click then it should work really well.” And that just can’t be the case. It seems really silly to prognosticate a team’s quality based on the portal additions!

At the same time, the key to success in college sports is talent acquisition so it is imperative to evaluate the talent coming in from all fronts, especially the portal.

But, to the point about this week’s team of record, Arkansas lost so much and added so many dudes that I legitimately have no idea what to think. I’m sitting here, fighting every urge of this thought, yet here it is: if these transfers work Arkansas is going to be really good. Maybe great.

And, blah on that thought! Useless drivel! Do better, Nate!

However, yeah, I really liked the lower-level receivers they added when they played at the lower level. And Taylen Green is a talented runner that can threaten with his arm. And Bobby Petrino is raving about his improved ability on reading defenses.

But you just don’t know until you see it.

Eli Drinkwitz has seemingly had Arkansas’ number since he got here, winning every matchup except for that one time. It’s always tougher to win on the road and who knows where each team’s motivations will be by the time we get to this game.

However you view the rivalry – forced or not – it’s always fun to win a piece of hardware. I’d like to see that again this year.